Recently I was deleting photos from my mobile phone to make space for new ones when I came across this photo from an event last year.

It was a political debate that took place only a few days before Donald Trump began his second presidential term.

On the screen behind the speaker was a slide presented by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) asking the question:
“Which economic partners can Europe trust?”

At that moment the answer seemed relatively clear.
The United States was still widely perceived as the EU’s most reliable economic partner.

Only a month later, the geopolitical atmosphere already looked different.

This sudden shift is a good reminder that we are living in what many analysts describe as a BANI world.

BANI is an acronym that describes the nature of today’s environment:

Brittle – systems that appear stable can suddenly break.
Anxious – uncertainty produces constant tension.
Non-linear – small events can trigger disproportionately large consequences.
Incomprehensible – even with information available, the full picture remains difficult to grasp.

In such a world, the traditional comfort zone of predictability is disappearing.

Resilience as the answer

Which raises an important question:

If the environment is unstable, what becomes the real source of stability?

The answer increasingly lies in resilience.

Resilience is needed both on the individual and on the organizational level.

A good example of resilient leadership could recently we saw in the speeches of the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Davos recently. His message highlighted several capabilities that are becoming essential in a BANI world.

• First, the ability to position ourselves clearly around our values, especially when circumstances change in ways we did not expect.
• Second, the importance of creating boundaries that protect those values.
• Third, the need to start thinking about solutions immediately, rather than staying stuck in uncertainty.
• And finally, the ability to make decisions even when circumstances are non-linear and unpredictable.

Until recently, the European Union often responds reactively to global developments. Yet the current environment increasingly requires a proactive approach.

The Canadian response to recent geopolitical tensions offers an interesting example. Instead of remaining in a victim position when facing hostility from what had long been their closest partner, Canada quickly began strengthening partnerships with other countries that share common interests.

Leadership examples can also be found within Europe. Spain’s Prime Minister recently positioned his country clearly regarding a geopolitical conflict by stating: “This is not our war.”

Crisis as a danger or turning point

Whether in politics, organizations, or personal life, the same questions remain relevant:

• What are the values around which I want to position myself or my organization?
• What possible solutions exist in these changed and unpredictable circumstances?
• Which decisions do we need to take now?

There is a well-known observation about the Chinese word for crisis: it combines two meanings: danger and turning point.

Resilience determines which of these two possibilities will prevail.

A crisis can push us deeper into instability and fear.
But it can also become a turning point that activates creativity, strategic thinking, and the courage to make difficult decisions.

In a BANI world, resilience is what allows individuals, organizations, and societies not only to endure change, but to respond to it with clarity and strength.